As a long-time reader you know that I believe the bear market in Bonds began in June 2012. This is a “considerable” length of time ago, to use the parlance of the Federal Reserve, but when you are describing the end of an almost thirty year bull market run for Bonds, well, the longer they are, the harder they fall. (more…)
Municipal Market Newsletter Archive
Buy The Euro; Enjoy Your Trip
Hot on the heels of a plunge in oil prices, the Euro has quickly reached a twelve year low. From 140 in May 2014 to 111 last month, like the price plunge in oil from $107 in June 2014 to $44 last month, we have no idea of the economic disruptions that are now under way. (more…)
Considerable Time Over
Long-time readers know we have been waiting for expected change in the bond markets for a…considerable time. After all, we are in year three of a bond bear market, yet all we seem to hear from bond market participants are interest rates should remain low for a considerable time…until they no longer do. (more…)
Bigger Than A Tax Cut
In a low growth world, where demand is seemingly flat and supply seemingly available, how is it the price of oil has fallen over fifty dollars per barrel in less than six months? From $107 in June to $64 in December, crude oil prices have tumbled. This is not good news. (more…)
Now It Gets Interesting
The Dow shed 1500 points last month and all of a sudden we can focus on something other than congratulating policymakers on keeping stock prices high and bond yields low. The financial world has been changing in rather dramatic ways but as long as stocks levitated and defied gravity no one seemed to care. (more…)
Big Bill Takes A Walk
Bill Gross leaving PIMCO is beyond newsworthy. While one expects to see successful founders, particularly billionaires, decide to hang it up and go do something different, Big Bill didn’t do that. Big Bill dropped a bombshell: he’s moving to Janus.
Big Bill was not a superstar in money management; he is a supernova. Like Peter Lynch of Fidelity’s Magellan mutual fund, Big Bill became a brand, the face of an entire asset class. And because everything is bigger in Bonds, Big Bill brought in big money, as in a trillion dollars or two. Big Bill is considered The Bond King! (more…)
Another Step Closer
Another month, another Letter. I appreciate your readership, particularly in these times of seeming sameness. No body likes to throw cold water on good times, my self included. (more…)
Stocks, Bonds & Optimism
Years ago, in the middle of the raging bull market of the late 1990s, I taught a bond class in SMU’s continuing education program. One notable feature I highlighted in the class was how bond performance had matched stock performance since the beginning of the bull market in the early 1980s.
“Welcome To The Everything Boom”
The July Letter almost didn’t make it as the same old, same old markets continued their gravity defying ways. On July 7th however, The New York Times saw fit to publish this headline as their front-page lead: “From Stocks to Farmland, All’s Booming, or Bubbling.” (more…)
The Mood of Municipal Bonds
When one thinks of municipal bonds, generally the next thought is…boring. Bonds are usually boring; adding municipal to the mix should make them more so. Bonds have a job to do and for most of the past several decades they have performed. Primarily we have the trend to thank. (more…)
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