In a low growth world, where demand is seemingly flat and supply seemingly available, how is it the price of oil has fallen over fifty dollars per barrel in less than six months? From $107 in June to $64 in December, crude oil prices have tumbled. This is not good news. (more…)
Municipal Market Newsletter Archive
Now It Gets Interesting
The Dow shed 1500 points last month and all of a sudden we can focus on something other than congratulating policymakers on keeping stock prices high and bond yields low. The financial world has been changing in rather dramatic ways but as long as stocks levitated and defied gravity no one seemed to care. (more…)
Big Bill Takes A Walk
Bill Gross leaving PIMCO is beyond newsworthy. While one expects to see successful founders, particularly billionaires, decide to hang it up and go do something different, Big Bill didn’t do that. Big Bill dropped a bombshell: he’s moving to Janus.
Big Bill was not a superstar in money management; he is a supernova. Like Peter Lynch of Fidelity’s Magellan mutual fund, Big Bill became a brand, the face of an entire asset class. And because everything is bigger in Bonds, Big Bill brought in big money, as in a trillion dollars or two. Big Bill is considered The Bond King! (more…)
Another Step Closer
Another month, another Letter. I appreciate your readership, particularly in these times of seeming sameness. No body likes to throw cold water on good times, my self included. (more…)
Stocks, Bonds & Optimism
Years ago, in the middle of the raging bull market of the late 1990s, I taught a bond class in SMU’s continuing education program. One notable feature I highlighted in the class was how bond performance had matched stock performance since the beginning of the bull market in the early 1980s.
“Welcome To The Everything Boom”
The July Letter almost didn’t make it as the same old, same old markets continued their gravity defying ways. On July 7th however, The New York Times saw fit to publish this headline as their front-page lead: “From Stocks to Farmland, All’s Booming, or Bubbling.” (more…)
The Mood of Municipal Bonds
When one thinks of municipal bonds, generally the next thought is…boring. Bonds are usually boring; adding municipal to the mix should make them more so. Bonds have a job to do and for most of the past several decades they have performed. Primarily we have the trend to thank. (more…)
More Debt More Better
I was wrong. The great Credit Expansion Finished didn’t end with the financial crisis; the great Credit Expansion merely took a reprieve. While the effects of the reprieve were mighty indeed, with stock and bond prices plunging, I was wrong to believe Credit Expansion Finished. Total credit (debt) has now soared to new highs largely taking stock and bond prices right back up with it.
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Scratching & Clawing
My firm belief that market conditions will (eventually) change gives me the optimism to approach each day as if today is that day. Then comes my monthly Municipal Market Letter writing day and of course it seems as if nothing has changed…ever. The first quarter of 2014 is gone and what has changed? While I know that this is not altogether true, the mileposts seem to be moving hardly at all. (more…)
A Point & Click World
I found myself thinking I have lived through this time before. Stocks are at all-time highs (again), homes are being torn down for new ones (again), internet stocks and their firms are cool (or hot, again) and the idea of trading municipal bonds via point and click is not only a reality but seemingly continues to gain momentum. (more…)
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