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Posts Tagged ‘optimism fades’

Markets Move, Not In A Straight Line

January 3rd, 2019 by Kurt L. Smith

If the stock market is reflective of social mood, and I believe it is, then we have experienced quite a mood change in the fourth quarter of 2018. From all-time stock market highs to the lows of the year, to what may be the worst December stock market since the Great Depression, the market, and mood, has changed.

Your mood may have changed as no one likes to see gains evaporate, particularly at historic clips. Markets, as I have preached for years, do go up and down after all, so this must be a part of it. Yes they do, but ups and downs do not reflect the true risk with this market.

The reason I find it important to forecast and call changes in trend is because with each later stage of the thirty-plus year (if not ninety year) bull market, I see the risks inherent in subsequent turns as much greater than we have previously experienced. We therefore should not be surprised when the unusual or extreme occurs because, like prior downturns, we are aware the surprising will probably occur.  Or in this case, take December as an example. (more…)

Now It Gets Interesting

November 3rd, 2014 by Kurt L. Smith

The Dow shed 1500 points last month and all of a sudden we can focus on something other than congratulating policymakers on keeping stock prices high and bond yields low.  The financial world has been changing in rather dramatic ways but as long as stocks levitated and defied gravity no one seemed to care. (more…)

NEWS FEED

The $247 trillion global debt bomb washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-2…