One of my strengths (and weaknesses) is that I was trained as an accountant. Double entry accounting follows specific rules. The rules of accounting, like other endeavors, do ebb and flow over time but Assets are always the sum of Liabilities and Equity. (more…)
Municipal Market Newsletter Archive
Wash, Rinse, Repeat
Stocks are cheap! Compared to Bonds, Stocks are cheap, but then again, everything is cheap compared to Bonds. This is the narrative driving Stock prices to multi-year and even all-time highs. Enjoy while you can but this narrative has no legs, despite the desires of all the central banks on the planet. (more…)
No, It Won’t Be Like This Forever
Sure short-term interest rates are near zero; nothing new here. But the good news, albeit great news, is we continue to find worthwhile, short-term municipal bonds. In a world of generic, too-big-to-fail, debt by the billions, you can thank a very diverse, too-many-issuers-to-count municipal bond market for these opportunities.
It’s The Fed, Unfortunately
Looking back over the past year the defining point for the markets was Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s missive in September. Asset prices peaked with Ben’s pronouncement. Animal spirits are now dissipating. The reversal eventually sent Municipal Bond prices to their high November 30th, along with my proclamation that Municipal Bonds were in bubble territory, heading for a big fall.
The Madness of Crowds
With the countdown clock to the Fiscal Cliff now inside thirty days one does not need my monthly missive to stir fear, panic and depression. Washington has you covered this month. Therefore, I will take a more optimistic stance: I believe your Cash and Bonds are well positioned for the current and future environment. (more…)
Debt Matters
The narrative of the financial crisis is only beginning to be written. Slowly but surely every one of us will be able to sum up the crisis in two words: Debt Matters. As the Federal Reserve continues its policy of buying treasury and mortgage bonds we can debate whether this will end the crisis or just end badly. We should however already be able to agree: Debt Matters. (more…)
QE3, Municipals and You
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke kicked off Year Six of the Financial Crisis by announcing a mortgage bond buyback scheme dubbed historic as the Fed is now focused on the employment woes of the nation. Will it work? One only need look as far as a Federal Reserve Bank president, Charles Plosser, to find a cogent critic. Thank goodness this is America and one can voice dissent. (more…)
Municipal Bonds Are Unique
Municipal bonds have been in the press more often lately. The Federal Reserve recently published a report on defaults in the municipal market precipitating arguments as to what constitutes a default as well as what constitutes a municipal bond. Such arguments bolster our position that while municipal bonds in the aggregate total almost $4 trillion, the marketplace is highly fragmented and the marketplace is a collection of tens of thousands of unique financial instruments too numerous to count. (more…)
Bankruptcy: When The Can No Longer Can Be Kicked
As the financial crisis enters its sixth year we find municipalities and their bonds increasingly in the news. Municipal woes appear to be on the rise. Therefore it is important to realize how unique each municipality is as well as how unique all of their municipal bonds can truly be. There is no such thing as a generic municipality nor is there any such thing as a generic municipal bond. Every municipality is different. Every municipal bond is different and therein lies the opportunity for you, the municipal bond investor.
Another Milestone Crossed
Summer is in full swing and things are heating up. Oil prices, any way you measure them, are down thirty percent from their highs in March. The last time oil fell thirty percent, the S&P promptly lost fifty percent of its market value in less than eight months. The narrative is not important. Keeping your assets safe and intact amidst the growing storm is our goal. (more…)
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