Are investors concerned out there? Some may say so, but most are doing nothing. Stocks have sold off, but most indices have recovered, some, maybe half, of their losses. Lots of talk, fretting, ignoring, but seemingly little selling going on.
One might expect this in the stock markets. After all, the major stock indexes set record highs in the past several months and remain nicely higher than where they were a year or two (or many years) ago.
This is not the case for bonds. We are five-plus years removed from the bond bull market top in 2020, and investors have little, if anything, to show for their loyalty of sticking with their bond investment.
Performance matters were so I would think. Last month I wrote how losing four points on long term bonds makes positive performance very difficult. Then came April.
On April 4th the Treasury Bond Future traded above 122; on April 9th it traded below 112 (all yields and prices per Bloomberg). Ten points lower in three days. Volatility in bonds is nothing new in the ever-expanding bond bear market. Since setting a ten year low in 2020, the ICE Bank of America MOVE index has trended higher. Volatility is not your friend, and it has spread to the stock market as well.
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