Voting is in full swing across our nation and I am sure you will be voting as well if you haven’t already. While we all care about our election, the market does not.
In a world filled with varying narratives, not to mention conflicting narratives, narratives do not move markets. News, breaking or not, also does not move markets. Yet markets move, even in ways that may convince you that something, or someone (or several someone’s) may be responsible.
(more…)From the front pages this summer, the story on bonds is they are no longer a story. Prices have rolled over as yields have risen and investors who bought on the price dips lately may be rethinking their commitment.
I have spent most of the last few years, as well as the last few months telling you this was the end of the run, not the beginning of a new one. The performance of the bond market over these years fits my description.
After several years of higher yields and lower bond prices, the bond market began a price correction late last year. But it was the performance of long-term treasury bonds in July and August of this year that received the out-sized attention. One of the longest treasury bonds, the 2.875% of 2049, rallied from about 100 in May, to 105 in July and 122 in August (source: Bloomberg, with prices rounded for conversation sake). Quite a move for a bond yielding less than 3%.
(more…)Well, so much for Top of Tops. Last month’s market call that both bonds and stocks were headed lower, proved premature. The September-October bond market decline failed to gather downward momentum while stocks added another leg upward.
While 1,000 Dow points isn’t what it used to be (lately about 4%, whereas 10% or more in years of yore), it is still 1,000 points. For me, a 1,000 points of wrong, but that’s the way markets can behave.
Take Bitcoin, everyone’s favorite (new) subject. In what appeared to be a frothy, over-extended market, Bitcoin merely added another fifty percent. And that was just last week!
Does one have to do with the other? Can the frothiness of Bitcoin and the added leg up in stocks or the pause in the bond bear market be related? Yes, they are all related: they are all markets. (more…)
Summer is in full swing and things are heating up. Oil prices, any way you measure them, are down thirty percent from their highs in March. The last time oil fell thirty percent, the S&P promptly lost fifty percent of its market value in less than eight months. The narrative is not important. Keeping your assets safe and intact amidst the growing storm is our goal. (more…)
Behold, Helicopter Ben Bernanke’s best laid plans are coming up short. Asset prices are no longer rising, nor are they holding. Asset prices are falling and the US Dollar is rising. Think this is just temporary? Asset prices peaked a year ago and once again they are moving in the direction of the long-term trend: down. The sound you now hear from the Federal Reserve is uh oh; the next sound we may hear is oh… (more…)
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