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Posts Tagged ‘bond portfolio’

Managing Municipal Bond Portfolios

June 28th, 2024 by Kurt L. Smith

It seems we cannot get enough of municipal bonds, taxable or tax free. The deals keep coming, the orders overflow, and some even get filled. Shampoo, rinse and repeat.

More demand than supply should keep bond prices buoyant. Unfortunately, financial products do not work that way. Wall Street’s job is to supply more when demand is high, and Wall Street is doing exactly that by creating more and more bonds (debt) to keep up.

Demand is high so municipal bond deals are large as well, some well over a billion dollars. According to Joe Mysak, Bloomberg’s long-time resident municipal bond market expert, this week marked “the 27th deal of $1 billion or more, with overall borrowing accelerating at a torrid pace.” Amazingly, the municipal bond market remains around $4 trillion, the same as 2020, according to SIFMA website. Actual current figures are $4.1 trillion, the same as two years ago and barely higher than $3.9 trillion in 2019. So perhaps the $200 billion difference is due to larger deals! Shampoo, rinse and repeat as old bonds mature and they need to be replaced.

So how does one manage municipal bond portfolios? Largely they are managed with scale. This is where new deals like this month’s Eagle Mountain – Saginaw ISD featured bond comes into play. The best time, perhaps the only time, to buy a $5 million, $10 million, or $25 million piece is when they are first distributed. This is not new. The new issue market has been on the shampoo, rinse repeat treadmill for many years.

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Bond Portfolio Blunders

April 3rd, 2023 by Kurt L. Smith

It is hard to fathom a $42 billion run on a bank. In one day, no less (source: State of California). One thing for sure, the dollars are bigger now. No longer do you need to stand in line to get your money from your bank. Zap, you can move it. Bang, the doors of the bank are shut. Just another day (or weekend) in our financial life.

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB-NYSE) did what any rational investor would do, realizing the bond market was in a bear. It sold. Not at the bottom in October, but in March, during the bond bear market correction. As I have said on these pages, a correction, particularly the end of a correction, is a good time to sell.

SVB had a plan and it hired Goldman Sachs to help implement it (source: Rueters). Sell $24 billion in bonds, mostly U.S. Treasury securities, for $21.45 billion. Considering 2022 was the worst year for bond market performance in the history of history, the losses could have been much worse. Goldman also advised the bank on a $2.25 billion capital raise to replace the bond loss. A prudent plan, it sure appeared.

No bank can survive a run on its deposits. Prudently run bank or otherwise, a bank run leads to a closed bank. So that is what the state of California did. The bank was closed. Now what?

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