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Posts Tagged ‘trend change’

What? Municipals on Top?!

January 15th, 2016 by Kurt L. Smith

Happy New Year!  Municipal bonds were one of the best performing asset classes for 2015*.  That doesn’t happen often (ever?)!  Municipal bonds didn’t post stellar returns but compared to the sub-par performance of almost every other asset class, municipal bonds came out on top.

Obviously we don’t invest in municipal bonds because we think they will be the top performing asset class each year.  We like the income, particularly tax-free income.  Municipal bonds may not have the sex appeal of other, perhaps higher yielding investments but they also do not have some of the risks.  In this era of low (to no) interest rates we have seen others chasing yields in all kinds of asset classes from master limited partnerships (MLPs) to high yield junk bonds and even in higher dividend stocks.

2015 saw some investments for yield really take it on the chin.  According to The Alerian MLP Index, Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) as an asset class lost about forty percent of their value last year.**  Forty percent is enough to whack off many years of projected income and price fluctuation is but one of the risks associated with MLPs.  Sure the yield (income) investors were hoping to grab is still there…unless the MLP cuts the dividend rate, another risk associated with MLPs.  No doubt MLPs performed well for many years prior to 2015, but then, bam, the trend moves in another direction leaving MLP investors to try and salvage their investment. (more…)

High Prices Good!

December 16th, 2015 by Kurt L. Smith

One of the lasting lessons learned from the financial crisis is how much better the world seems to be when asset prices are high(er). Balance sheets are strong when prices are strong. Loans look better when collateral prices are higher. As we saw in 1999 and again in 2007, higher prices make for a wonderful investor world. (more…)

The Trend Is Not Your Friend

November 11th, 2015 by Kurt L. Smith

Investors look to the Federal Reserve for economic leadership.  Looking backward, one might say the Fed helped get the economy back on track with lower interest rates, higher asset prices and lower unemployment.  Looking forward, the Fed continues to feed us the line that next month or next quarter will be better. (more…)

We Live In Interesting Times

September 1st, 2015 by Kurt L. Smith

While waiting for the next move higher in long-term interest rates, the Dow decided to shed 1000+ points.  And that was only in the first eight trading days following the publication of the August Letter. (more…)

Rates Rise, Prices Fall

August 12th, 2015 by Kurt L. Smith

Interest rates are moving higher. While markets do not move in a straight line, they do move consistent with the trend. The trend for interest rates is up and the ramifications for investors worldwide will probably be huge. (more…)

Greece, China and Puerto Rico, Oh My!

July 22nd, 2015 by Kurt L. Smith

The mile markers continue to move on by. Kicking the can down the road appears to be running out of steam and now people are truly being hurt as real losses are now affecting millions of people. (more…)

Bond Interest Rates Jump…Finally!

June 22nd, 2015 by Kurt L. Smith

Bonds are grabbing the headlines again and not in a good way.  Long-term interest rates worldwide have jumped about one full percentage point, sending longer-term bond prices down across the board.  Why this is the case is not important; the fact that bond values are evaporating is important. (more…)

Same Old, Same Old

May 23rd, 2015 by Kurt L. Smith

Times, they may be a changin’, but it is difficult to tell by watching the bond market. New issues usually dominate bond market news and that continues to be the case. Corporate bond issuance continues on a tear while municipal bond issuance focuses on refinancings. Interest rates remain low. (more…)

Municipals, Bonds Without Peers

April 21st, 2015 by Kurt L. Smith

When will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates?  This is the question investors want to know.  Yet I will tell you, it does not matter.  The market tells us interest rates began to rise in 2012; the market will tell us how fast interest rates rise from here. (more…)

Considerable Time Over

January 8th, 2015 by Kurt L. Smith

Long-time readers know we have been waiting for expected change in the bond markets for a…considerable time.  After all, we are in year three of a bond bear market, yet all we seem to hear from bond market participants are interest rates should remain low for a considerable time…until they no longer do. (more…)

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