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Posts Tagged ‘topping process’

Bonds Are Markets Too

June 12th, 2019 by Kurt L. Smith

The bond market has been on quite a tear of late. With lower yields and higher prices, bond market articles have been on the front pages of The New York Times as well as other prominent articles in their business section.

Stocks on the other hand ended last month with their sixth consecutive down week. With bonds moving higher in price and stocks moving lower maybe there is something new going on. Perhaps your stock portfolio hasn’t been performing as it once did. Is something new happening?

From our vantage point, there is nothing new going on in the markets. The bond bear market began in 2012. Others may argue with me on this but that gives us a sense of how long a topping (or turning) pattern may take to develop or be fully recognized.

The bond (price) topping pattern or yield bottoming pattern has unfolded over many years already. Perhaps we will see something similar time-wise with stocks, but perhaps not. Perhaps the reason your stock portfolio isn’t performing the way you think it should is because we are in a similar topping pattern currently with stocks. If this is the case, which I believe, the key issue we need to address is one of risk versus reward.

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Another Step Closer

March 3rd, 2016 by Kurt L. Smith

Markets go up and markets go down.  We all know this.  We should also know that we are fortunate to live in an era in which markets have trended higher for decades.  Unfortunately we now live in an age of asset bubbles with the largest bubbles of all, Stocks and Bonds, on the verge of a massive popping.

We have watched the popping of two asset bubbles over the past several years: According to Bloomberg, Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) and Oil.  Gold peaked in September 2011 at $1920 an ounce, falling 45% over the following four years to a $1046 low.  Silver almost touched $50 an ounce for the second time in its history and sold off to below $14.  Oil peaked at $147 in 2008 but sold at $107 just nineteen months ago and below $27 last month.  Markets do go up and down, but in today’s age of asset bubbles, one must be ever mindful of the tremendous downside risks that exist. (more…)

NEWS FEED

The $247 trillion global debt bomb washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-2…