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Posts Tagged ‘stock bull market’

Should We Be Traders?

March 24th, 2021 by Kurt L. Smith

One year ago, I wrote my March 6th letter highlighting the risks of bond market investing when treasury securities all yielded less than 1%. It was a watershed moment and one I believed would be a reference point for years to come.

We have been following the bellwether treasury note and bonds as they continue to lose value as interest rates move higher. The ten-year note, 1.50% of 2/15/30, traded this past week below par at 98-22, down from 111-19 on March 9, 2020 or 11.5% lower (all prices from Bloomberg). The thirty-year bond, the 2.375% of 11/15/49 traded at a discount of 97-11+ versus 140-17 on March 9, for a 30.7% loss.

From a trading perspective, original buyers of these treasuries have watched their portfolio values surge and then come back to earth. A forty-point gain in the long bond is now wiped out. This is the nature of buying into a late-stage bull market. How high is high? Will you know it when you see it? Will you act or freeze?

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Never Sell Anything

December 16th, 2020 by Kurt L. Smith

Years ago, and I mean many years ago, it became apparent that bond portfolio managers rarely sold bonds in their portfolio. Sure, active managers might sell something to keep their active manager label active, but rarely did a bond manager sell bonds in the portfolio to meaningfully move the needle on their holdings. If a manager did not like the market, she could enter a derivatives trade to place her bet instead.

Another reason for the never sell mentality in bonds was the fact that more money usually came in the door. When bonds perform well, investors tend to stick with it or even add funds. Combine all this with the other fact that bonds do mature, and bond portfolio managers are usually in the position of deciding where to invest cash rather than the prospect of selling bonds to raise more cash.

This has been the case for decades, though there may have been some managers slow in the 1980’s and early 1990’s to warm up to the fact that we were in what would become a multi-decade bond bull market. While the rise in the bond market has not been straight up, I would argue, from a portfolio management standpoint, it might as well have been. Bond portfolio managers have largely been reluctant to sell even prior to the large swoon in the financial crisis of 2007. If anything, the recovery since has largely reinforced the idea of never sell anything.

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Time Marches On

August 7th, 2020 by Kurt L. Smith

Unfortunately, there is no finish line for investing. If there was, we could now declare stocks a winner, bonds a winner, gold a winner, real estate…well, you get the idea. But there is tomorrow to deal with, not to mention next year and years from now.

Investing is a longer period endeavor. Bond investors know this as every bond you buy reminds you with a maturity date. What will happen over the next year, or two, five or ten or more years? Bond investors confront this reality with every purchase.

Wherever you want to draw the line, financial assets have been winners. Year-to-date, last year or two, last five…they, for the most part, have been good times for you as an investor of financial assets.

All of that is in the past; investing is about the future. If investing were a race, it would be an endless one as time marches on. Decisions made can be worthwhile as well as decisions not made. Second-guessing can be debilitating and is to be avoided. That is why it is important to make sound decisions.

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