One of the lasting lessons learned from the financial crisis is how much better the world seems to be when asset prices are high(er). Balance sheets are strong when prices are strong. Loans look better when collateral prices are higher. As we saw in 1999 and again in 2007, higher prices make for a wonderful investor world. (more…)
Posts Tagged ‘long-term trends’
The Trend Is Not Your Friend
Investors look to the Federal Reserve for economic leadership. Looking backward, one might say the Fed helped get the economy back on track with lower interest rates, higher asset prices and lower unemployment. Looking forward, the Fed continues to feed us the line that next month or next quarter will be better. (more…)
Markets Move; Fed Does Not
We have witnessed a reversal from the slow and steady rise of the stock market to greater volatility including a twelve percent decline in the Dow in a mere four days back in August. Stocks recovered going into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement September 17th, yet the Fed chose not to move on interest rates. (more…)
We Live In Interesting Times
While waiting for the next move higher in long-term interest rates, the Dow decided to shed 1000+ points. And that was only in the first eight trading days following the publication of the August Letter. (more…)
Rates Rise, Prices Fall
Interest rates are moving higher. While markets do not move in a straight line, they do move consistent with the trend. The trend for interest rates is up and the ramifications for investors worldwide will probably be huge. (more…)
Greece, China and Puerto Rico, Oh My!
The mile markers continue to move on by. Kicking the can down the road appears to be running out of steam and now people are truly being hurt as real losses are now affecting millions of people. (more…)
Bond Interest Rates Jump…Finally!
Bonds are grabbing the headlines again and not in a good way. Long-term interest rates worldwide have jumped about one full percentage point, sending longer-term bond prices down across the board. Why this is the case is not important; the fact that bond values are evaporating is important. (more…)
Same Old, Same Old
Times, they may be a changin’, but it is difficult to tell by watching the bond market. New issues usually dominate bond market news and that continues to be the case. Corporate bond issuance continues on a tear while municipal bond issuance focuses on refinancings. Interest rates remain low. (more…)
Municipals, Bonds Without Peers
When will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates? This is the question investors want to know. Yet I will tell you, it does not matter. The market tells us interest rates began to rise in 2012; the market will tell us how fast interest rates rise from here. (more…)
Bigger Than A Tax Cut
In a low growth world, where demand is seemingly flat and supply seemingly available, how is it the price of oil has fallen over fifty dollars per barrel in less than six months? From $107 in June to $64 in December, crude oil prices have tumbled. This is not good news. (more…)
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