I have been tempted through the years to write my letter as “just like last month.” It certainly could apply this month. Treasury bond prices, as well as stock prices, are on a tear. Municipal and corporate bonds are right there with them. Everyone, it seems, has moved to one side of the boat.

This is the time of year for the pundits. Review 2023, predict 2024, we were right, they were wrong…it is an annual event. It is also a time to revisit perspective.

Over the past six months, longer-term interest rates, such as the ten-year US treasury note, rose from 3.85% on July 3^rd to 5.02% on October 23^rd and now back to 3.85% today, December 29^th (all prices and yields per Bloomberg). For a price perspective, the newest ten-year US treasury note for the period, the 3.375% of May 15^th, 2033, sold at 96, 88 and now back to 96 over the same six-month timeframe. These are nice juicy moves for traders, but who is a trader?