The Knowledge Vault Newsletter Sign-up >>>

 

Posts Tagged ‘Federal Reserve’

High Prices Good!

December 16th, 2015 by Kurt L. Smith

One of the lasting lessons learned from the financial crisis is how much better the world seems to be when asset prices are high(er). Balance sheets are strong when prices are strong. Loans look better when collateral prices are higher. As we saw in 1999 and again in 2007, higher prices make for a wonderful investor world. (more…)

The Trend Is Not Your Friend

November 11th, 2015 by Kurt L. Smith

Investors look to the Federal Reserve for economic leadership.  Looking backward, one might say the Fed helped get the economy back on track with lower interest rates, higher asset prices and lower unemployment.  Looking forward, the Fed continues to feed us the line that next month or next quarter will be better. (more…)

Markets Move; Fed Does Not

October 5th, 2015 by Kurt L. Smith

We have witnessed a reversal from the slow and steady rise of the stock market to greater volatility including a twelve percent decline in the Dow in a mere four days back in August.  Stocks recovered going into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement September 17th, yet the Fed chose not to move on interest rates. (more…)

Municipals, Bonds Without Peers

April 21st, 2015 by Kurt L. Smith

When will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates?  This is the question investors want to know.  Yet I will tell you, it does not matter.  The market tells us interest rates began to rise in 2012; the market will tell us how fast interest rates rise from here. (more…)

Considerable Time Over

January 8th, 2015 by Kurt L. Smith

Long-time readers know we have been waiting for expected change in the bond markets for a…considerable time.  After all, we are in year three of a bond bear market, yet all we seem to hear from bond market participants are interest rates should remain low for a considerable time…until they no longer do. (more…)

“Welcome To The Everything Boom”

July 20th, 2014 by Kurt L. Smith

The July Letter almost didn’t make it as the same old, same old markets continued their gravity defying ways. On July 7th however, The New York Times saw fit to publish this headline as their front-page lead: “From Stocks to Farmland, All’s Booming, or Bubbling.” (more…)

The Fed Chooses To Punt

October 7th, 2013 by Kurt L. Smith

The Federal Reserve Board chose to do more of the same in September and will continue to buy bonds at a $1 Trillion annual pace.  All that hub-bub earlier in the summer about pulling back, now coined as tapering, well you can just forget that.  The Stock market is at recovery highs and why rock the boat? (more…)

Watch The Markets, Not The Fed

May 8th, 2013 by Kurt L. Smith

The Federal Reserve, along with most Central Banks around the world, are creating Cash and Credit at an unprecedented pace in the most ambitious economic experiment of all time.  Yet despite Central Bankers attempts to create Cash and Credit (and hence inflation), the price of Gold fell from over $1900 to almost $1300. (more…)

Wash, Rinse, Repeat

March 8th, 2013 by Kurt L. Smith

Stocks are cheap!  Compared to Bonds, Stocks are cheap, but then again, everything is cheap compared to Bonds.  This is the narrative driving Stock prices to multi-year and even all-time highs. Enjoy while you can but this narrative has no legs, despite the desires of all the central banks on the planet. (more…)

No, It Won’t Be Like This Forever

February 11th, 2013 by Kurt L. Smith

Sure short-term interest rates are near zero; nothing new here.  But the good news, albeit great news, is we continue to find worthwhile, short-term municipal bonds.  In a world of generic, too-big-to-fail, debt by the billions, you can thank a very diverse, too-many-issuers-to-count municipal bond market for these opportunities.

(more…)

NEWS FEED

The $247 trillion global debt bomb washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-2…